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September, 2009


GREEN COFFEE NEWS
WAIT OF THE WORLD

STEVE RUIZ, GREEN COFFEE BUYER

And so we wait. We wait for the heat to break. We wait for the coffee world to come back from its break. We wait for premiums to break from their highs.

There has been some easing from the incredible differential explosion during late Spring. Due to lack of interest from these explosive premiums or a gradual aversion to those coffees affected and the use of more reasonably priced alternatives, the high profile Colombian differentials have come down as have others to a lesser extent.

The coffee world has gone quiet; quite literally. Not much news, not much interest, not much gossip and almost no weather news from Brazil. Yes, it’s that time of year again; weather watching in Brazil. Can you hear the crickets?

There are still plenty of concerns about crop size, crop quality, the impact of both on prices, etc. and not just from Brazil, but from all key origins.

The lack of headline news from origin does not necessarily mean that all has returned to normal. Premiums do remain historically high although the situation in Colombia has gotten a bit better; more for next year than next month, but the situation has gotten better.

There is a general uneasiness as to what to do next for next year in many origins as premiums do remain high more due to risk of the unknown given the recent jump. That leaves many of us, both buyers and sellers, very uncertain as to the next step to take.

With building inventories due to summer doldrums, we are afforded the luxury of time and that is a true luxury at the moment.

It does allow us the break we need to clear our minds, take a vacation, and rethink what may be outdated strategies.

I can’t wait for the Fall. It’s more than just a season.

Enjoy your summer.